Connect with us

Miami Dolphins

Uncovering Draft Tendencies: How Chris Grier Plans To Build A Winner

Edit via 305 Sports

Fans, prognosticators, and the media have spent the past few months theorizing who the Miami Dolphins will select in the 2021 NFL Draft. In reality, these predictions are often just educated guesses. By dissecting the Dolphins’ draft history, we should uncover trends that will get us closer to the truth.

Chris Grier took over as the Director of College Scouting for the Miami Dolphins in 2007. He wasn’t given the final say over the draft until 2016, but all of the 114 draft picks from 2007-2020 have his fingerprints on them.

What follows is a round-by-round breakdown of the most statistically likely picks and some players that could fit at each draft position. Player availability is based off of the consensus big board, which combines over forty-five big boards and hundreds of mock drafts to calculate average draft positions.

Round One

Out of sixteen first-round draft selections since 2007, offensive tackle (25%) and cornerback (18.75%) have been the most common. Since 2007, Miami has avoided five different positions in the first round: running back, tight end, off-ball linebacker, safety — counting Minkah as a corner — and kicker/punter.

There’s a much smaller sample size, but inside the top ten, Miami has selected WR, OT, QB, Edge, QB. The Dolphins would’ve stayed at No. 3 overall if they had an interest in a quarterback, so that position can be removed from consideration. That leaves WR, Edge, and OT which happen to be the first, second, and third highest-paid positions — after quarterbacks.

Notable first round picks

  • Jake Long (OT)
  • Vontae Davis (CB)
  • Mike Pouncey (IOL)
  • Ryan Tannehill (QB)
  • Devante Parker (WR)
  • Laremy Tunsil (OT)-G.O.A.T.
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (CB/S).

Who is Miami going to draft?

Due to prospect rankings and Miami’s roster construction, I wouldn’t expect a corner or edge player to come off the board at number six. This leaves offensive tackle or wide receiver as the most likely target at six. Tight end Kyle Pitts is also a possible selection, as blue-chip/generational prospects are always in demand early in the draft.

Possible selections at No. 6

  • Penei Sewell (OT)
  • Rashawn Slater (OT)
  • Ja’Marr Chase(WR)
  • DeVonta Smith (WR)
  • Jaylen Waddle (WR)
  • Kyle Pitts (TE)

The No. 18 overall selection is where things open up a bit. None of the edge prospects are likely to be top-ten picks, but at 18th would be a good spot to grab one. It isn’t what I would do, but there’s also a possibility that Miami targets one of the top running backs at eighteen. Grabbing a tackle would also be a great pick if Miami goes receiver at six.

Possible selections at No. 18

  • Christian Darrisaw (OT)
  • Teven Jenkins (OT)
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (IOL)
  • Kwity Paye (Edge)
  • Jaelan Phillips (Edge)
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB/S)
  • Micah Parsons (LB)
  • Najee Harris (RB)
  • Travis Etienne (RB)
  • Rashod Bateman (WR)

Round Two

Grier has selected corner (17.6%) and quarterback (17.6%) more than any other position in the second round. Linebacker, interior defensive line, and offensive tackle all tie for the second most common selections. The only positions to never be selected in the second round are kicker/punter and safety.

Notable second round picks

  • Sean Smith (CB)
  • Jarvis Landry (WR)
  • Xavien Howard (CB)
  • Mike Gesicki (TE)

Who is Miami going to draft?

Unless one of the top four or five quarterbacks drop all the way here, I don’t think Miami even considers the position. Selecting a cornerback might seem like an odd choice, but it could make sense. The Dolphins’ defense is heavily reliant on strong man corner play. Xavien Howard has dealt with injury problems his entire career, Byron Jones had an off-year in 2020, and they’re both inching closer to thirty. If Noah Igbinoghene doesn’t progress, they could be in trouble following an injury in 2021 or after some age regression from Jones and Howard in 2022 and beyond.

Even though Miami hasn’t selected running backs this high in recent years, I think the top of the second could be a great place to snag one of the remaining top backs. Offensive line, receiver, linebacker, and edge could also work here.

Possible selections at No. 36

  • Javonte Williams (RB)
  • Greg Newsome II (CB)
  • Samuel Cosmi (OT)
  • Jayson Oweh (Edge)
  • Gregory Rousseau (Edge)
  • Zaven Collins (LB)
  • Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR)
  • Alex Leatherwood (OT)
  • Elijah Moore (WR)

Possible selections at No. 50

  • Landon Dickerson (IOL)
  • Asante Samuel Jr. (CB)
  • Jamin Davis (LB)
  • Creed Humphrey (IOL)
  • Nick Bolton (LB)
  • Dillon Radunz (OT)
  • Carlos Basham Jr. (Edge)
  • Joe Tryon (Edge)
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (CB)
  • Quinn Meinerz (IOL)

Pages: 1 2 3 4

A life-long Dolphins fan that ended up in Texas after serving in the Air Force. I believe in using a combination of analytics, film-study, and misguided fan-instincts to develop pieces. I look forward to hearing from you, Fins Up!

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

More in Miami Dolphins